Quantitive methods Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

Quantitive methods - Assignment Example We shall first conduct an informal graphical analysis to get a feel for what to expect and then move on to formal tests for stationarity. We start by looking at the time plots of the two given series. Figure 2: share price of Korean Airlines Figures 1 and 2 present the time plots. Evidently, both series exhibit a gradually rising trend and some moderate persistence properties. This reflects that neither of the series are stationary. They also seem to reflect similar patterns of persistent volatility. Now, we turn to look at the first differences of the two series. Figure 3: The Korean Stock Exchange stock price index in first differences Figure 4: price of Korean Airlines in first differences. From figures 3 and 4, we find that neither series exhibits any patterns or trends. They seem to fluctuate randomly around zero. Thus, both the series of 1st differences seem to be stationary around a zero mean. Thus our preliminary graphical analysis reflects that both the series are integrated of the first order. Formally to evaluate the validity of these claims, we run Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests on the levels and the 1st differences of the two series. ... Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LKO) Method: Least Squares Date: 04/09/12 Time: 13:53 Sample (adjusted): 1/08/1997 12/14/2011 Included observations: 780 after adjustments Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  Ã‚   LKO(-1) -0.003394 0.003258 -1.041768 0.2978 C 0.024682 0.022454 1.099231 0.2720 R-squared 0.001393   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Mean dependent var 0.001348 Adjusted R-squared 0.000109   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  S.D. dependent var 0.044155 S.E. of regression 0.044152   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Akaike info criterion -3.399783 Sum squared resid 1.516653   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Schwarz criterion -3.387836 Log likelihood 1327.915   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.395188 F-statistic 1.085281   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Durbin-Watson stat 2.039111 Prob(F-statistic) 0.297843 Table 1 above presents the results of running an ADF test on the lko series. The choice of optimal lag is automatic based on the Schwarz information criterion or SIC. Note that the null hypothesis is that the series has a uni t root. The relevant portions have been highlighted for convenience. The t-statistic is smaller in absolute terms compared to the critical value, and the associated p-value is 0.74>0.05. Therefore, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Thus, this implies that the series of levels of the lko is non-stationary. Now, we take first differences of the series and test its stationarity properties. This is done in table 2. Table 2: testing stationarity of the 1st differences of lko Null Hypothesis: D(LKO) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=20) t-Statistic   Ã‚  Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -28.52751   0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.438518 5% level -2.865035 10% level -2.568686 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent

LOVE. Review the NHS changes proposed in the Health and Social Care Essay

LOVE. Review the NHS changes proposed in the Health and Social Care Bill now proceeding through Parliament and evaluate how these reforms are to address the problems with the Service - Essay Example The reduction of inequalities in the provision of health and social care is highlighted as one of the focus areas for the secretary of state under the new Bill (Dow 2011, p13). In addition, the Bill proposes that the provision of comprehensive health services which include various aspects of health care including mental and physical through proper diagnosis, prevention, and treatment. This aspect proposes that quality of services in the health sector is raised to meet the standards set for continuous improvement in the health sector. The Bill proposes that the level of public contribution to health and social care service provision is increased (Crisp n.d., p4). Public proposals for development of the services provided are to be highlighted and considered by the NHS Commissioning Board in decisions affecting health care services. The Board will be mandated with establishing of various platforms to involve the public in the identification of the needs of the specific needs and approaches needed for improvement. Establishment of the Public Health England will be the focus of the improvement of public health care provision. The roles of the Local Authorities and commissioners of health in the provision of health and social care services are expected to be integrated under the Bill. In view of the need to provide a coordinated service, the government will eliminate unnecessary costs of duplication and offer the benefits of synergies. It is important that scrutiny of the services offered of such diverse service providers is introduced in the improvement proposed by the Bill since accountability issues derail quality service (ACKA Consulting 2008, p1). The Bill undertakes to offer regulatory authority for the various types of health and social care practitioners as required in a functional system. It is important that the professionals involved in the health care and social sector be regulated for conformity with quality and improvement as